Early voter support in the 2026 Republican primary race for South Dakota governor is focused on U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson and incumbent Gov. Larry Rhoden, according to a poll of 500 registered GOP voters co-sponsored by South Dakota News Watch.
But an expected crowded field could complicate the path to victory in the primary, with 35% of the vote needed to avoid a runoff election.
The statewide survey, also sponsored by the Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota, showed Johnson at 28% and Rhoden at 27%, with Attorney General Marty Jackley at 18%.
Aberdeen businessman Toby Doeden polled at 4%, followed by South Dakota Speaker of the House Jon Hansen at 2%.
The number of respondents who said they were undecided was 20%. That underscores the early nature of a race in which Hansen, a Dell Rapids lawyer and anti-abortion advocate, is the only one to have officially declared his candidacy.
Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy conducted the poll of registered Republican voters April 9-11, using random selections from a telephone-matched state voter registration list that included both landline and cellphone numbers. The margin of error was no more than 4.5 percentage points.
Here are key takeaways as candidates begin planning their campaigns:
Money talks for 'leading candidate' in governor's race
Johnson, elected to a fourth term in Congress in 2024, has $5.9 million in his “Friends of Dusty Johnson” campaign committee as of last filing and can shift that money toward a state race. His intention to run for governor has been well-known in state political circles for some time.
Combined with name recognition and decades of political experience, Johnson's campaign fund makes the 48-year-old Pierre native a major player in the governor's race, even with an incumbent in the field.
"I'm grateful to be the leading candidate for governor in the early going, but my focus is on working for our country," Johnson told News Watch in reaction to the poll. "We've got a narrow window to secure conservative wins in Washington, and I plan to keep delivering. I'll worry about the next race later."
Mindful that other Republicans will try to portray him as too moderate or not sufficiently loyal to President Donald Trump, Johnson has aligned himself with Trump on numerous issues in 2025, including tariffs, federal spending cuts and a potential takeover of the Panama Canal.
The poll showed that Trump carries a 68% favorability rating among South Dakota Republicans voters, compared to 52% for Johnson and 40% for Rhoden.
At times Johnson has taken a more centrist tone, introducing a Wounded Knee Massacre site bill in Congress that would preserve a section of the land where hundreds of Lakota Indians were massacred by the U.S. Army in 1890.
Larry Rhoden needs to raise money, sell vision
Rhoden, a 66-year-old Meade County rancher, is a former state legislator who served as lieutenant governor to former Gov. Kristi Noem. He took the top job in late January when Noem was confirmed as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security in the Trump administration.
The latest campaign filing from his “Rhoden for Governor” campaign committee shows a balance of about $91,000. His ability to sell donors on his vision for another term and raise cash quickly will determine his viability in the race.
Julia Hellwege, an associate political science professor at USD and director of the Chiesman Center, said that Noem's departure and Rhoden's ascension to the top job "threw a wrench" into the race by allowing him to run as an incumbent.
"It sort of changed the landscape for the other candidates," said Hellwege.
The poll showed that 40% of respondents had a neutral view of Rhoden, compared to 23% for Johnson. Also, 13% didn't recognize the governor's name, more than half of those who hadn't heard of Johnson (6%).
Establishing a political identity separate from Noem, a challenge when taking office in the midst of a legislative session, will be a priority for Rhoden. The governor has heralded a pro-business approach as part of his "Open for Opportunity" tour, hoping to impress top-level donors with an eye toward 2026.
Like Johnson, he is widely expected to run but has not formally entered the race.
"I’ve been receiving a lot of encouragement from South Dakotans to keep doing the job of governor," Rhoden told News Watch in reaction to the poll. "Sandy (his wife) and I are encouraged by this information — but campaigns are too long and a distraction from public service. South Dakota is a great state, and I’m focused on doing my job serving the people as governor."
Rhoden draws well-balanced support
The poll showed that male voters support Rhoden (31%) over Johnson (28%) and Jackley (17%), while Johnson has the early lead among female voters at 29%, followed by Rhoden at 22% and Jackley at 19%.
There’s also a geographical divide. Johnson leads in the Sioux Falls Metro region (Minnehaha and Lincoln counties) with 34%, with Rhoden at 26% and Jackley at 18%. Among West River voters, Rhoden has the edge at 27%, followed by Johnson (24%) and Jackley (23%).
Hellwege noted that Rhoden stayed consistent among all four quadrants of the state, with each region between 26% and 29% in his favor, a balance that she said he could build on. Johnson showed a 10-point dip the Sioux Falls Metro (34%) and West River (24%).
Johnson has the highest share of young voters supporting him, with 35% of GOP respondents aged 18-34 saying they would vote for him if the election were held today, followed by Rhoden (32%) and Jackley (14%).
Jackley surprised by third-place result
Jackley told News Watch that he was surprised by his third-place standing in the poll, 10 points behind the leader.
The 54-year-old Sturgis native has about $520,000 in his campaign fund and is well-established in South Dakota's political and legal communities. He previously ran for governor in 2018, losing in the Republican primary to Noem.
Jackley, who has professional ties to U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi, will work to build momentum with endorsements and support from groups such as the National Association of Attorneys General, of which he serves as vice president.
He has scheduled a major fundraiser for May 5 at the Arrowhead Country Club in Rapid City.
"I continue to receive encouragement to run for governor from South Dakotans who want a common sense conservative in the race," Jackley told News Watch. "But right now I’m focused on keeping our streets safe and leading the fight against government corruption.”
Michael Card, an emeritus professor of political science at the University of South Dakota, also expressed surprise at Jackley's standing in the poll.
"There's a lot of time left, but I thought he would be a lot closer to Johnson and Rhoden," said Card. "Rhoden is 5 points ahead of him West River, where he should be strong, and he's not really in consideration in Sioux Falls Metro and East River/South, where he's below the number of undecideds. It shows that crime or personal safety may not be the issue that's on people's minds right now."
Jon Hansen, Toby Doeden unknown to most voters
Hansen, who announced his candidacy along with running mate Karla Lems on April 24 in Sioux Falls, is well-known to political insiders as a force behind defeating the 2024 constitutional amendment to legalize abortion in South Dakota.
The 39-year-old property rights advocate rose to the office of House speaker as part of a populist surge in Pierre stemming from the 2024 GOP primary elections.
The News Watch poll showed he has a lot of work to do to translate those efforts into a viable statewide campaign. In a section of the survey used to gauge favorability, 54% of Republican voters surveyed didn't recognize Hansen's name.
The poll was taken before his campaign kickoff event at the South Dakota Military Heritage Alliance, where Hansen vowed to reduce government waste and corruption in support of "grassroots patriots from all across the state."
Name identity is also a problem for Doeden, whose Dakota First Action PAC helped boost anti-carbon pipeline efforts and send populist candidates to the state Legislature.
Doeden can self-fund campaign efforts with resources from his car dealerships and real estate holdings, but his social media outreach hasn't boosted his profile to casual voters. Nearly 60% of poll respondents did not recognize his name.
Stu Whitney
History has shown that hard-right candidates can make waves in South Dakota Republican primaries, such as Taffy Howard's 41% performance in the 2022 U.S. House race against Johnson. But there is typically a ceiling to such support.
"Both (Hansen and Doeden) have advantages with the MAGA (Make America Great Again) branch of the Republican Party," said Card. "But that also means that they have people who won't support them because of that perspective."
Noem, Thune lead in SD favorability
The poll also shed light on the popularity and name recognition of South Dakota politicians among Republican voters.
Noem, who served as governor from 2019-2025 before leaving for her Cabinet position, had a favorable rating of 61%, which puts her at the top of the list. The 53-year-old Castlewood native also had the highest unfavorable rating at 25%.
Mason-Dixon polling allows for a neutral response (neither favorable or unfavorable). Only 14% of respondents had a neutral opinion of the former governor.
Noem's job performance as Homeland secretary was part of a separate statewide poll that News Watch will release April 29.
The next highest favorability rating (56%) among GOP voters belonged to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who has worked closely with the Trump administration since the president took office. Thune’s unfavorable rating was the lowest among those polled, at 8.6%.
Thune was followed in favorability by U.S. Sen. Mike Rounds (53%), who is expected to run to keep his Senate seat in 2026. He was followed by Jackley (53%), Johnson (52%), Rhoden (40%), Hansen (12%) and Doeden (10%).
The poll showed Johnson with an unfavorable rating of 19% within the party, compared to 7% for Rhoden and 10% for Jackley.
"There's always the inside-the-GOP question about some voters' concerns about Dusty, which he has tried to address with symbolic support of Trump," said Hellwege. "I think there's also an inherent mistrust of Washington and members of Congress generally, which could be part of what we're seeing."
This story was produced by South Dakota News Watch, an independent, nonprofit organization. Read more stories and donate at sdnewswatch.org and sign up for an email every few days to get stories as soon as they're published. Contact Stu Whitney at stu.whitney@sdnewswatch.org.
