Poll sheds light on South Dakota's 2026 election outlook
Voter opinions on Noem, Thune, Johnson, Rounds and Jackley and their possible next steps.
Now that South Dakota's 2024 general election is in the books, it's time to take a deep breath and step away from politics for a few months to regroup, right?
Well, not quite.
Attention is already turning to 2026, when South Dakota will elect a new governor as well as hold races for U.S. Senate and U.S. House and constitutional offices such as attorney general, secretary of state and state treasurer.
News Watch co-sponsored a poll in October to assess the favorability ratings of South Dakota's top office-holders, assessing their popularity with an eye toward future political moves, whether in Washington or Pierre.
Stu Whitney
The statewide survey of 500 registered voters was also sponsored by the Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota. It was conducted by Mason Dixon Polling & Strategy on Oct. 12-16, a few weeks before Republican Donald Trump defeated Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris to return to the White House.
With the presidential race settled, some moves involving South Dakota politicians could happen quickly.
U.S. Sen. John Thune's bid to become Senate majority leader will be decided by vote of his Republican colleagues on Wednesday, with South Dakota's four-term senator among the favorites to succeed longtime leader U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.
Gov. Kristi Noem has stayed close to Trump's orbit. If she were to have a role in the new administration, that would prompt a shakeup in Pierre with Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden taking the reins to finish the last two years of her final term.
Those seeking office in 2026 will proceed more gradually, but wheels are turning as potential candidates seek to line up donors and endorsements.
News Watch spoke to candidates, consultants and political science professors to analyze how polling data and 2024 election results could impact the futures of South Dakota politicians.
War chest totals, including campaign committees and federal and state political action committees, are from the latest Federal Elections Commission reporting date of Oct. 16.
Gov. Kristi Noem
Favorable: 48%/Unfavorable: 40%
Neutral: 12%/Don't recognize: 0%
Total war chest: $3,242,602
The second-term governor monitored election results as closely as anyone, knowing that a Trump victory could possibly send her back to Washington as a member of the Republican administration. She served as South Dakota's lone member of the U.S. House from 2011 to 2018.
Noem helped celebrate the victory at Mar-a-Lago, Trump's resort in Palm Beach, Florida, reinforcing the notion that she is anxious to join the transition before the South Dakota legislative session begins in Pierre.
Her popularity numbers have recovered somewhat from her ill-fated book launch last spring, marred by revelations about killing an unruly family hunting dog and fabricating a meeting with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un.
Noem's favorability was underwater in a May poll co-sponsored by News Watch, at 39% favorable and 48% unfavorable, a significant dip from October 2020, when she came in at 52% favorable and 24% unfavorable.
This latest poll has her favorability at 48%, equal to Trump and Thune in South Dakota. But Noem still has a much higher unfavorable rating (40%) than any other South Dakota politician in the survey.
Her net favorability in the survey was plus-8, well behind non-MAGA delegation members Rep. Dusty Johnson (plus-27) and Thune (plus-24).
But Noem was viewed as favorable by 76% of Republican respondents, compared to 57% for Thune and 52% for Johnson, both of whom also had higher "neutral or no opinion" responses.
Stu Whitney
Noem's job performance approval was 55% in the poll, up slightly from 52% in May.
Getting nominated for a Cabinet job would offer an exit ramp for a lame-duck governor not eager to endure a 2025 legislative session with the GOP's populist faction – of which she is not considered a member – procuring more power.
Establishment legislators took a beating in Republican caucus votes on Nov. 8, with Rep. Jon Hansen, the Life Defense Fund co-founder who has also been active in landowner rights against pipelines, becoming speaker of the House.
Secretary of Agriculture or Interior are potential cabinet fits for the 52-year-old Noem, who had eyed the role of U.S. ambassador to the United Nations that Nikki Haley filled during Trump's first term.
Any agricultural or trade role could be delicate for Noem, who criticized Trump's tariffs and trade wars while serving in Congress due to their impact on South Dakota farmers.
Noem's status in Trump's circle is connected to informal adviser Corey Lewandowski, who lost a leadership battle with co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita and was demoted to surrogate status in Trump's campaign.
But Johnson, who has a more positive working relationship with the governor than Thune or U.S. Sen. Mike Rounds, believes that Noem's unyielding support for Trump in recent years will pay dividends.
"Anytime I talk to President Trump, he brings up his admiration for Kristi Noem," Johnson told News Watch. "I'm sure she's going to have opportunities to serve this country. It'll be up to her whether or not she wants to take them, but I don't have any doubt she's going to have options."
Sen. John Thune
Favorable: 48%/Unfavorable: 24%
Neutral: 20%/Don't recognize: 8%
Total war chest: $16,735,389
Thune was not on the 2024 ballot but attended Johnson's victory party on the top floor of the Holiday Inn City Centre in Sioux Falls, relishing the presidential returns and hobnobbing with party regulars.
The 63-year-old Murdo native offered remarks on Johnson's re-election but left before Johnson took the stage. He was headed to the Hilton Garden Inn a few blocks away to make phone calls to new Republican senators who won their races, including Bernie Moreno in Ohio and Jim Justice in West Virginia.
The goal was to build more support for the Senate majority leader vote, 20 years after Thune ignited his political brand by knocking off Democratic Senate Leader Tom Daschle in their momentous 2004 clash in South Dakota.
Thune and Texas' John Cornyn are considered the favorites in the secret ballot among GOP senators, with Florida's Rick Scott hoping to leverage his alliance with Trump to close the gap. Scott has gained recent momentum with conservative media and was endorsed Nov. 10 by Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.
Thune's relationship with the president-elect is spotty, dating back to Thune's call for vice presidential nominee Mike Pence to take over the GOP ticket in 2016 when the “Access Hollywood” tape leaked of Trump having a lewd conversation about sexual mistreatment of women.
Thune later voted to acquit Trump in the post-Capitol riot impeachment trial of 2021 but added that "what (Trump) did to undermine faith in our election system and disrupt the peaceful transfer of power is inexcusable.”
Thune, the No. 2 Republican in the Senate, has since worked to mend the rift, ultimately endorsing Trump for 2024, though he mentioned the president-elect just once toward the end of his remarks at the Johnson event on election night.
Cornyn received a key endorsement Nov. 8 from Missouri U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley, but the Texas senator faces re-election in 2026 and may need to spend time and political capital fending off a competitive primary. Thune is not up for re-election until 2028.
In the News Watch poll, Thune has roughly the same favorability as Noem (48%) without the baggage of a bungled book launch or MAGA-style rhetoric. His unfavorable number (24%) is 16 points lower than the Republican governor.
Rounds told News Watch that he's supporting Thune for Senate leader because he “embodies the principles and leadership qualities that our nation needs at this crucial time. His understanding of the legislative process and his ability to bring people together to find real solutions have earned him the trust and respect of his colleagues and the people of South Dakota.”
Rep. Dusty Johnson
Favorable: 42%/Unfavorable: 15%
Neutral: 40%/Don't recognize: 3%
Total war chest: $5,586,138
After winning re-election Nov. 5 with 72% of the vote against Democrat Sheryl Johnson, Dusty Johnson told supporters that he would focus on securing the border, fighting inflation, and reducing spending and regulation.
"Let's never forget that this country was not built on anger and fear," said the fourth-term congressman. "This country was built on courage and imagination and optimism and freedom."
Powerful words from a 48-year-old Pierre native who is amassing funds and political support to take the next step in his career and run for South Dakota governor in 2026.
Some data points are in Johnson's favor as he pursues that lifelong goal, while others are viewed as vulnerabilities.
Jon Schaff, a political science professor at Northern State University in Aberdeen, noted that Johnson (72%) had a higher vote share than Trump (62%) in South Dakota in 2024, though clearly in a less competitive race.
Johnson's unfavorable rating of 15% is the lowest of South Dakota's congressional delegation, though 40% of poll respondents have a neutral view of the congressman.
"Dusty’s brand of 'conservative and competent' has broad appeal," said Schaff. "Once again, his biggest challenges are within his own party, not across the state as a whole."
Johnson's 51% approval among Republicans in the poll lags in comparison to Noem (76%) and Trump (72%), opening him up to a likely primary challenge from the hard right.
His impending gubernatorial campaign will seek to bolster support among a populist wing of the party that remains distrustful of his federal voting record. Johnson was one of 13 Republicans who voted to block Trump’s national emergency declaration to secure funding for a wall on the Southern border in 2019.
Stu Whitney
He voiced constitutional concerns over executive expenditures without legislative approval in explaining that vote, just as he cited institutional norms in opposing the effort to strip Wyoming's U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney, one of Trump’s most arduous GOP critics, of her House leadership position in 2021.
Rapid City state legislator Taffy Howard attacked those stances as well as Johnson's support of an independent commission to investigate the Capitol riot, during her 2022 House primary campaign against him.
She finished with 41% of the vote to Johnson's 59%.
“I'm never going to be scared of a primary,” Johnson told News Watch in 2023. “Anybody who thinks that by acting in a certain way they can gain a free pass doesn't understand modern politics. At some point, you just go do the right thing and figure out what that means politically later.”
Serving as governor in the city he was raised has been a durable dream for Johnson, who worked under former Govs. Rounds and Dennis Daugaard and earned a seat on the Public Utilities Commission at age 28.
Leaving nothing to chance, he's spent months hitting up top-tier state donors and conducting private polling to show he has the edge on potential rivals, causing some potential candidates to grumble about the makings of a coronation.
Daugaard has already endorsed his former protege for governor, telling News Watch in 2023: "I hope he runs. I think he will. And if he does, I am four-square behind him.”
Johnson’s war chest reflects the imminence and urgency of his plans. Nearly $1 million has flowed this year through his joint fundraising arm, Dusty Johnson Victory Committee, to his campaign committee, Friends of Dusty Johnson, which now has more than $5.5 million of battle-ready cash on hand.
Donations to the joint fundraising committee included $20,000 installments from marquee donors such as First Premier Bank CEO Dana Dykhouse, hotel executive and former Board of Regents president Harvey Jewett, and Sioux Falls venture capitalist and former Lt. Gov. Steve Kirby.
The only uncertainty surrounding Johnson's run for governor is when he will formally announce and who will line up to run against him. A spring 2025 launch is possible, though someone else jumping in earlier could accelerate the process.
As for who would run for Johnson's U.S. House seat in 2026, state Sen. Casey Crabtree of Madison is a name that pops up frequently, as does state Rep. Tony Venhuizen of Sioux Falls, former chief of staff to Daugaard and Noem.
There's also the likelihood of a Freedom Caucus-style candidate such as Howard or Hansen, whose anti-abortion efforts were successful in defeating Amendment G at the polls on Nov. 5.
Sen. Mike Rounds
Favorable: 36%/Unfavorable: 25%
Neutral: 34%/Don't recognize: 5%
Total war chest: $2,194,290
Rounds, a second-term U.S. senator who is up for re-election in 2026, was viewed favorably by 36% of statewide respondents in the October poll, compared to 24% unfavorable.
The tepid nature of those numbers is underscored by the fact that 34% of respondents were neutral toward Rounds, who has embraced his role in Washington while forsaking the partisan firestorms of Noem and the leadership ambitions of Thune.
Political observers noted that if Rounds is going to defend his Senate seat against a Republican primary challenge, he's going to have to get more assertive about what he stands for and why he deserves to continue to represent South Dakota interests.
The general consensus is that the 70-year-old Rounds, who has never lost an election, would not be afraid to roll up his shirtsleeves at least one more time.
He has not totally ruled out running for governor as a means of returning home to Pierre, where he served as a state legislator and was South Dakota governor from 2003-2011. His wife, Jean, died of cancer in 2021, but he has grandchildren in the capital city.
The gubernatorial option was viewed by some as a contingency plan for Rounds if Noem decided to run for Senate, though Trump's win and Noem's potential administration role shifts that scenario.
Another factor is that Rounds has found satisfaction in committee work in the Senate, where he has taken a lead on Veterans Administration issues, funding for tribal law enforcement and financial industry oversight.
He might enjoy it even more now that Republicans have regained the Senate majority and possibly the House, along with the White House.
Attorney General Marty Jackley
Favorable: 28%/Unfavorable: 13%
Neutral: 36%/Don't recognize: 24%
Total war chest: $469,543
Jackley is well-known in South Dakota's political and legal community but has some work to do with average voters if he plans to run for higher office again.
The News Watch poll showed that 24% of respondents didn't recognize his name, despite the fact that the former U.S. attorney has twice served as attorney general and ran for governor in 2018, losing in the Republican primary to Noem.
Jackley's favorability was 42%, but 40% were neutral and just 13% unfavorable, meaning he has room to grow as the 2026 election cycle takes shape.
Another run for governor is a distinct possibility, though Jackley told News Watch that "right now I'm focused on being the best attorney general I can be for South Dakotans and doing the job South Dakotans elected me to do."
He has been critical of Johnson's early donor grab for 2026 while also trying to find a lane for himself, mindful of the fact that his campaign committee total of about $500,000 is a far cry from what Team Dusty has banked.
Jackley's strident stances on border control, abortion bans and gun ownership could be a precursor to running to the right of Johnson in a gubernatorial primary, much like Noem did to Jackley in 2018.
Carson Walker
He has had conversations with Club for Growth, a political action committee that raises money for hard-right candidates, and recently hosted a meeting of the Attorney General Alliance in Deadwood, raising money in the process.
If Jackley is seen as the populist alternative to Dusty Johnson's establishment coalition, there could be more out-of-state money to be had, and maybe even the elusive and exceedingly valuable Trump endorsement.
Of all the bombshells that could shake up the 2026 election cycle in South Dakota, that would be the most seismic one of all.
This story was produced by South Dakota News Watch, an independent, nonprofit news organization. Read more in-depth stories at sdnewswatch.org and sign up for an email every few days to get stories as soon as they're published. Contact investigative reporter Stu Whitney at stu.whitney@sdnewswatch.org.
