Main theme for South Dakota politics in 2025? Buckle up.
Noem, Thune prepare for new roles in Washington as South Dakota awaits a new governor and early 2026 election intrigue.
Though it’s an off year in election terms, 2025 will pack a considerable punch within the scope of South Dakota politics.
The drama begins in January, when Gov. Kristi Noem is scheduled to begin committee hearings in Washington after being appointed as secretary of the Department of Homeland Security by incoming President Donald Trump, whose inauguration is Jan. 20.
Noem’s proposed executive branch role is just part of South Dakota’s influence in the nation’s capital. Sen. John Thune was chosen by his Republican colleagues as Senate Majority Leader in November, and Rep. Dusty Johnson has emerged as a close adviser to Speaker Mike Johnson in the House of Representatives.
Stu Whitney
In Pierre, the surging populist GOP wing assumes control of legislative leadership as Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden prepares to take the reins from Noem in a challenging budget year, with the session starting Jan. 14.
Amid this backdrop, candidates will start plotting for 2026, when South Dakota will elect a new governor as well as hold races for U.S. Senate and U.S. House and constitutional offices such as attorney general, secretary of state and state treasurer.
Here’s a quick rundown of what to expect as a jam-packed political year begins:
Noem fast-tracked as Homeland secretary
Noem’s appointment to Homeland Security is considered high priority by the Trump administration as it seeks to hit the ground running on proposed immigration reforms.
The South Dakota governor's confirmation timeline is right behind Trump's choices for secretary of Defense (Pete Hegseth) and secretary of State (Marco Rubio), with those national security picks expected to have committee hearings the week starting Jan. 13.
Noem has met with members of the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, which is chaired by Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and will consider her nomination.
She cannot be formally nominated until Trump is sworn in Jan. 20, and the committee can’t vote until that occurs. So the earliest that her appointment can be confirmed by the committee and sent to the full Senate is likely Jan. 21 or 22.
Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, which means they can lose three GOP votes and still pass measures or appointees, with Vice President-elect J.D. Vance breaking ties.
If Noem survives, as most expect, Trump's team wants her to be publicly active out of the gate, which likely means a trip to the Southern border to stress a crackdown on illegal immigration.
As a member of the House, Dusty Johnson is not involved in the confirmation process. But he told News Watch that he’s confident South Dakota’s governor will hold up under the “advise and consent” scrutiny of the Senate.
“There are certainly some appointments that are more controversial in nature," Johnson said. "(Noem) is a pretty straightforward, traditional, conservative pick, and I would think she's in excellent shape. She knows how to make decisions and doesn't get scared at the prospect of making a tough call."
As for how the 53-year-old Noem will handle a job that puts her in charge of a network of 22 agencies and 260,000 employees tasked with keeping the United States safe from outside threats, there are differences of opinion.
Stu Whitney
Jeh Johnson, who served as Homeland Security secretary under President Barack Obama from 2013-17, told News Watch in November that he wishes Noem success “in promoting the department’s missions and its people.”
But Johnson, former general counsel of the Department of Defense, added a note of caution as Noem prepares to join an administration that has vowed to carry out mass deportations of illegal immigrants in the country, facing likely legislative and legal hurdles along the way.
“I fear she will be placed in the untenable position of having to publicly defend the Trump administration’s most controversial and harshest immigration enforcement policies,” Jeh Johnson said. “I suspect there will be many days when she wishes she were back in South Dakota.”
Thune bolsters relationship with Trump
Thune is settling into his role as Senate majority leader, a job he apprenticed for while serving as a right-hand man for former longtime Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, who remains in the Senate.
One of Thune's biggest challenges will be managing the demands and expectations of Trump, who has called for quick action from Senate Republicans on confirming Cabinet posts and getting in step with White House prerogatives.
Thune would prefer to insulate the Senate from such pressure under the constitutional balance of power. That wish was granted in December, when 38 GOP senators voted against Trump’s preferred bill to extend government funding while also suspending the debt limit for two years, which would have eased the path for White House priorities such as border spending and tax cuts.
Congress later passed a temporary funding bill that did not address the debt ceiling, despite Trump saying on social media that he would support primary challenges against Republicans who opposed his wishes.
Thune's rocky relationship with Trump, dating back to the 2016 presidential campaign and inflamed by the U.S. Capitol riot of Jan. 6, 2021, has seen signs of recent repair.
Thune and Trump were seen hanging out together in a private suite at the Army-Navy football game on Dec. 14, and Thune also visited the President-elect at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida recently to discuss legislative strategy.
Another fragile alliance, the one involving Thune and Noem that highlights their contrasting political styles, is not necessarily under repair but is being mitigated for what both consider the greater good of Republican leadership in Washington.
Stu Whitney
Thune met with Noem to discuss her Homeland Security appointment and the shared recognition that many of Trump’s immigration aims will run through the Senate and Noem’s office if she’s confirmed.
Thune has listed border security as one of his top political priorities entering the 2025 session, along with tax relief, military strength and energy deregulation.
Johnson rises in House stature, eyes 2026
Though the 2026 primary for South Dakota governor is still 18 months away, the race has been bubbling beneath the surface for months.
Dusty Johnson has been the most active among potential contenders, building a campaign war chest of more than $5.5 million while wrangling top-level South Dakota donors in anticipation of a race that could begin as early as spring 2025.
Other likely candidates include Rhoden and South Dakota Attorney General Marty Jackley as well as a contender from the populist wing, with state Rep. Scott Odenbach of Spearfish mentioned frequently after recently being named House majority leader.
Odenbach worked closely with Speaker of the House Jon Hansen of Dell Rapids to bolster anti-abortion and landowner rights initiatives while urging the ouster of “establishment” legislative incumbents in the 2024 election, all of which were successful efforts.
Jackley, who saw Noem run to the right in defeating him for the 2018 gubernatorial nomination, is determined to better position himself this time. He has assembled volunteer campaign staff for whether he runs for governor or attorney general in 2026, showcasing hardline stances against illegal immigration, abortion and gun control.
The 54-year-old Sturgis native has made the pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago and has a working relationship with former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi, the U.S. attorney general nominee who is part of Trump's current inner circle.
Most political observers agree that a Trump endorsement could be a game-changer in any South Dakota statewide race, and the president-elect has supported conservative state AGs before in their pursuit of higher office.
Barring such a development, running for governor could be an uphill climb for Jackley, who had about $500,000 in his campaign coffers at the last reporting date and limited options for coveted in-state donors after Johnson’s early efforts.
“One thing I learned from high school and college athletics is that my coach would tell me, ‘Run your own race,’” Jackley told News Watch. “So it doesn't make any difference to me if somebody else is running for governor. I’m going to do what is best for me and the state, and that decision won't be affected by other individuals.”
Johnson has insisted that he’s in no hurry to formally launch a gubernatorial campaign. One political insider noted that there’s no advantage to “hanging out there as a punching bag for 14 or 15 months, especially when you've got so much money and you're well known."
He has hired a media consultant to help keep him well-positioned amid a temperamental Republican electorate in South Dakota, with the goal of fending off Trump-fueled challenges against him.
The congressman shared with top supporters an internal poll from Axis Research that showed him at 31% among 306 “known Republican primary voters” in South Dakota from Nov. 10-12, compared to 22% for Jackley, 10% for Rhoden and 7% for former state legislator and U.S. House candidate Taffy Howard. The poll showed 31% as undecided, with a margin of error of 5.6 percentage points.
Stu Whitney
Johnson's visibility as a sitting U.S. congressman gives him an early edge, said Jon Schaff, a political science professor at Northern State University in Aberdeen. But the undecided numbers and the fact that Rhoden hasn't become governor yet means there's a long way to go.
"My strong suspicion is that Dusty is way ahead of the other figures in name recognition, giving his support a bit of an artificial strength," Schaff told News Watch. "As other candidates raise money and increase their name recognition, the numbers may change."
A Mason-Dixon poll co-sponsored by News Watch in October showed Johnson with a favorability rating of 51% among Republicans in the state, well behind Noem (76%) and Trump (72%). Those results bolstered the conventional wisdom that he needs to win over hard-right voters to secure the GOP primary.
For now, Johnson is focused on his work in Congress, where he has emerged a key dealmaker as Republican leadership walks the tightrope of a razor-thin majority in the House. He has emphasized his coordination with the Trump administration as it seeks to carry out its agenda in Congress.
“Right now, 99% of my time is focused on this first 100 days (of Trump's presidency)," Johnson, 48, told News Watch. "You know, shame on us if we don't secure the border, cut regulations and push back on the Chinese Communist Party. And if I take my eye off those things, our chance of success won't be as good.”
Rhoden prepares to take reins in Pierre
One of the state's biggest political stories in 2025 could be the ascension of Rhoden, who will likely become the first South Dakota governor to assume office in the middle of a legislative session in Pierre.
The 65-year-old Meade County rancher is already sizing up a Legislature fraught with budgetary battles and potential Republican infighting. The 2024 election was a triumph for limited government populists, who seized leadership roles and will test the remaining influence of pro-business institutionalists when it comes to pipelines, prison projects and property tax.
Rhoden, a legislative veteran who ran unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate in 2014, will have ample opportunity to prove his political dexterity in the current GOP environment, setting the tone for a potential re-election bid.
The Union Center resident has assembled a "kitchen cabinet" to prepare for his new role. That group of close advisers includes Steve Westra, former commissioner of the Governor’s Office of Economic Development; Board of Regents president and former state legislator Tim Rave; and Sioux Falls lawyer and lobbyist Matt McCaulley.
The search for a lieutenant governor has focused on Sioux Falls to provide a West River/East River balance come election time. Rhoden's preferred choice is Westra, but there are concerns about whether his past GOED battles with limited-government legislators would complicate his confirmation.
Christine Erickson, a former state legislator and Sioux Falls city councilor who has West River roots, has also been considered for the role.
Stu Whitney
From an electoral view, Rhoden has a chance to use the increased visibility of the governor's office as a launching pad for 2026. While not a polished speaker, his status as a "true-blue cowboy from Union Center" is seen by political insiders as a potentially effective counter to Dusty Johnson's bookish zeal.
Rhoden's ability to raise money and encourage allies may hinge on how he handles the upcoming legislative session. Having served in both the House and Senate, he understands the process well enough to navigate the choppy waters of a Republican party divide.
He'll need to complement those efforts with the executive mettle and mature leadership that South Dakotans want to see as the face of their state moving forward.
Plenty of comparisons have been made to Walter Dale Miller, another West River rancher and veteran legislator who served as lieutenant governor under Gov. George Mickelson. Miller took the reins of leadership at age 67 after Mickelson was killed in a plane crash in April 1993.
Miller ran for governor as an incumbent in 1994 and was challenged by Bill Janklow, a former governor and more savvy politician who won by a margin of 54% to 46%, setting up his return to Pierre for two terms.
Rounds aims for re-election in 2026
The general consensus is that 70-year-old U.S. Sen. Mike Rounds, who is up for re-election in 2026, will enter the fray at least one more time to seek a third term in Washington.
This means that Rounds, who has publicly criticized Trump's stances at times in the past, might need to tread lightly to avoid a populist primary challenge in a state where opposing Trump too stridently can alter political fortunes.
Thune, by contrast, isn't up for re-election until 2028, the final year of Trump's term.
Rounds has not ruled out running for governor as a means of returning home to Pierre, where he served as a state legislator and was South Dakota governor from 2003-2011.
The gubernatorial option was viewed by some as a contingency plan for Rounds if Noem decided to run for Senate, though Trump's presidential win and Noem's administration role shifts that scenario.
The names most frequently mentioned for U.S. House in 2026, assuming Dusty Johnson runs for governor, are state Sen. Casey Crabtree of Madison and state Rep. Tony Venhuizen of Sioux Falls, former chief of staff to Daugaard and Noem.
Howard, who challenged Johnson from the right in the 2022 U.S. House primary and finished with 41% of the vote, is also a possibility for the 2026 race.
This story was produced by South Dakota News Watch, an independent, nonprofit news organization. Read more in-depth stories at sdnewswatch.org and sign up for an email every few days to get stories as soon as they're published. Contact investigative reporter Stu Whitney at stu.whitney@sdnewswatch.org.
